Analysis as a Compound Part of Prognosticating and Programming Measures of Combating Crime in the Region

Abstract

The analysis of crime should be promising and not limited to fixing its past states, but to give grounds for its forecast in general and individual crimes in particular. Forecasting is necessary for programming crime prevention activities. It is important to ensure the purposefulness of analytical activity, to correctly define its objectives, to formulate initial hypotheses, to put this analysis to a certain level and to remain ready to receive new, even unexpected, unprogrammed data. The basis for assessing the state of crime when comparing different regions or crime of different periods is the complex of   external and internal characteristics of crime, and not only data on its general prevalence. Crime is analyzed simultaneously with its consequences. The following most obvious of them are taken into account: – number of victims of crime; – the size of the material damage, including lost profits; – criminal anxiety of different social groups (proportion of those who commit and committed crimes); – social deprivation of a certain part of the population (the spread of narcosis in its various manifestations; homelessness and homelessness, including children from the families of criminals, prostitution, as well as other negative social deviations with which criminality is closely interrelated); – criminal defeat of various spheres of life; – degree of criminal influence on state structures and institutes of civil society, on the right, use of the latter in the interests of criminal activity (many criminal groups in a number of regions acted under the guise of law enforcement officers of various rank); – the efforts of leaders of the criminal environment from the penetration of its representatives in the higher echelons of legislative and executive power; – the loosening of civilized, protected by law, value-normative system of society, the spread of criminal ideology and psychology; – decrease of population activity in confronting crime and adapting it to a certain layer of individuals. In special literature repeated attempts to introduce some one general quantitative indicator as a universal criterion for assessing the state of affairs in terms of qualitative and quantitative indicators of crime. Criminologists believed that this would be important in a comparative evaluation of crime in different periods. However, if we proceed from the fact that in regions with a favorable criminal situation it is necessary to further improve the fight against crime, that crime is a complicated, diverse phenomenon, it is advisable not to averify the data about it, but to keep in mind the features of the complex of qualitative and quantitative characteristics of crime. In surveys, for example, it turned out that relatively well-off general indicators of the number of registered crimes in a number of regions concealed very high economic crime. But the crime associated with drunkenness was   lower than in other regions. Due to this, the overall picture of crime looked better in comparison with the region. Of course, the purpose of the analysis of crime is to improve the fight against it, based on the allocation of its main directions, clear statement of objectives, drafting programs for their provision, improvement of preventive and law enforcement activities. Accordingly, the study of crime is multidimensional. It is impossible to identify the assessment of crime and assess the activities of law enforcement agencies in the fight against crime. The state and dynamics of crime are determined largely by the general social conditions, and not always depend on law enforcement agencies. Accordingly, the reduction of crime – this is not always the success of only law enforcement agencies. An in-depth analysis of the reasons for changing the criminal situation is always needed. At the same time, characteristics of crime, of course, are subject to accounting when analyzing the work of the prosecutor's office, the court, police and other law enforcement agencies. Undoubtedly, the activity of these bodies has a significant impact on crime. What is, for example, an undisclosed crime? This is the presence of the offender in freedom and often a series of new crimes. In the study of crime, it is important not only to find the most common characteristics that are similar to the crime of different regions, representatives of various social groups, different types of crime, but also take into account differences, peculiarities in order to differentiate crime and, taking into account these features, to ensure consistent practical activities. Crime accounting is based on the registration of its specific manifestations: the facts of the committed crimes; persons who committed these crimes; the victims of the crime and the amount of material damage caused by the crimes; organized formations. However, current statistics reflect this data very poorly. One of the tasks of criminology is to give recommendations on improving the accounting of crimes. In order for the conclusions and recommendations made on the basis of statistical analysis to be objective, scientifically valid, the following requirements must be met: a) quantitative analysis of statistical indicators should be based on a thorough knowledge of the main provisions of legal science, studying the nature of a phenomenon, its patterns and relationships;   b) the statistical population to be studied should consist of a fairly significant number of units collected in a large area and for several years; c) the analysis of statistical data necessary to use not only the official statements and other material obtained through special surveys or research, including criminological research; d) the study of crime and related issues to consider materials other statistical areas (economic, demographic, health, etc.).